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Prediction for CME (2025-01-20T20:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-01-20T20:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/36524/-1
CME Note: Slow, faint CME seen to the southeast in SOHO C2 imagery likely associated with a spray-like filament eruption from near the vicinity of Active Region 3967 (S17E30) seen best in SDO/GOES 304 imagery.
CME Arrival Time: -----
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME: -----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-01-24T19:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/36526/1
Model Inputs:
2025-01-20T20:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-29.0, Lat.=-19.0, Speed=318.0, HalfAngle=23.0, Time21.5=2025-01-21T06:40Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-01-24T19:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
Europa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-01-26T18:00Z
Lucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-01-26T03:00Z
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-01-24T06:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250121_064000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250121_064000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250121_064000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250121_064000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250121_064000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250121_064000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250121_064000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250121_064000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250121_064000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250121_064000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250121_064000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250121_064000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250121_064000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250121_064000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250121_064000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250121_064000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250121_064000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 92.37 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) on 2025-01-20T22:38Z

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